election_tracker.utf8.md

Live Results

As of 9:20 AM, 61 voters in 16 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 142,687 people have voted in person across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 106,090 - 187,021). In addition, 342,044 mail-in ballots have already been returned, and 93,385 are still outstanding.

Maps

I use historic correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting. See the Methodology.

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In)

In-Person Turnout

Mail-In Requests

Mail-In Ballots Returned

Raw Responses (for debugging)

Submissions

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

**Estimated Turnout by Ward**

ward	time_of_day	turnout	turnout_p025	turnout_p975

01	9:20 AM	2002	c(`2.5%` = 1366)	c(`97.5%` = 2357)
02	9:20 AM	3323	c(`2.5%` = 2258)	c(`97.5%` = 3967)
03	9:20 AM	1874	c(`2.5%` = 1308)	c(`97.5%` = 2674)
04	9:20 AM	1860	c(`2.5%` = 1235)	c(`97.5%` = 2746)
05	9:20 AM	4514	c(`2.5%` = 3161)	c(`97.5%` = 5651)
06	9:20 AM	1250	c(`2.5%` = 901)	c(`97.5%` = 1692)
07	9:20 AM	1035	c(`2.5%` = 405)	c(`97.5%` = 2260)
08	9:20 AM	4650	c(`2.5%` = 3183)	c(`97.5%` = 5612)
09	9:20 AM	2418	c(`2.5%` = 1595)	c(`97.5%` = 2937)
10	9:20 AM	2759	c(`2.5%` = 1937)	c(`97.5%` = 3877)
11	9:20 AM	1196	c(`2.5%` = 770)	c(`97.5%` = 1859)
12	9:20 AM	2037	c(`2.5%` = 1396)	c(`97.5%` = 2920)
13	9:20 AM	1848	c(`2.5%` = 1237)	c(`97.5%` = 2732)
14	9:20 AM	797	c(`2.5%` = 590)	c(`97.5%` = 1026)
15	9:20 AM	2416	c(`2.5%` = 1702)	c(`97.5%` = 2842)
16	9:20 AM	987	c(`2.5%` = 595)	c(`97.5%` = 1591)
17	9:20 AM	2285	c(`2.5%` = 1559)	c(`97.5%` = 3314)
18	9:20 AM	1821	c(`2.5%` = 1342)	c(`97.5%` = 2348)
19	9:20 AM	855	c(`2.5%` = 363)	c(`97.5%` = 1673)
20	9:20 AM	813	c(`2.5%` = 508)	c(`97.5%` = 1207)
21	9:20 AM	5208	c(`2.5%` = 3737)	c(`97.5%` = 7066)
22	9:20 AM	3080	c(`2.5%` = 2210)	c(`97.5%` = 3600)
23	9:20 AM	1637	c(`2.5%` = 1047)	c(`97.5%` = 2270)
24	9:20 AM	1322	c(`2.5%` = 939)	c(`97.5%` = 1696)
25	9:20 AM	1349	c(`2.5%` = 757)	c(`97.5%` = 2040)
26	9:20 AM	1994	c(`2.5%` = 1345)	c(`97.5%` = 2733)
27	9:20 AM	1985	c(`2.5%` = 1209)	c(`97.5%` = 3228)
28	9:20 AM	1057	c(`2.5%` = 643)	c(`97.5%` = 1725)
29	9:20 AM	1067	c(`2.5%` = 791)	c(`97.5%` = 1423)
30	9:20 AM	2110	c(`2.5%` = 1531)	c(`97.5%` = 2439)
31	9:20 AM	1685	c(`2.5%` = 1149)	c(`97.5%` = 2141)
32	9:20 AM	1681	c(`2.5%` = 1045)	c(`97.5%` = 2633)
33	9:20 AM	1237	c(`2.5%` = 534)	c(`97.5%` = 2303)
34	9:20 AM	3879	c(`2.5%` = 2850)	c(`97.5%` = 5073)
35	9:20 AM	2396	c(`2.5%` = 1487)	c(`97.5%` = 3332)
36	9:20 AM	3027	c(`2.5%` = 2272)	c(`97.5%` = 3771)
37	9:20 AM	1092	c(`2.5%` = 633)	c(`97.5%` = 1785)
38	9:20 AM	1943	c(`2.5%` = 1482)	c(`97.5%` = 2451)
39	9:20 AM	3990	c(`2.5%` = 2661)	c(`97.5%` = 5175)
40	9:20 AM	3716	c(`2.5%` = 2555)	c(`97.5%` = 4977)
41	9:20 AM	1574	c(`2.5%` = 837)	c(`97.5%` = 2429)
42	9:20 AM	1786	c(`2.5%` = 959)	c(`97.5%` = 2830)
43	9:20 AM	1394	c(`2.5%` = 650)	c(`97.5%` = 2495)
44	9:20 AM	1249	c(`2.5%` = 832)	c(`97.5%` = 1835)
45	9:20 AM	1729	c(`2.5%` = 1012)	c(`97.5%` = 2562)
46	9:20 AM	2450	c(`2.5%` = 1846)	c(`97.5%` = 2877)
47	9:20 AM	692	c(`2.5%` = 459)	c(`97.5%` = 945)
48	9:20 AM	1676	c(`2.5%` = 1187)	c(`97.5%` = 2173)
49	9:20 AM	2192	c(`2.5%` = 1448)	c(`97.5%` = 3190)
50	9:20 AM	3346	c(`2.5%` = 2506)	c(`97.5%` = 4231)
51	9:20 AM	2015	c(`2.5%` = 1372)	c(`97.5%` = 2940)
52	9:20 AM	2661	c(`2.5%` = 1991)	c(`97.5%` = 3427)
53	9:20 AM	1703	c(`2.5%` = 980)	c(`97.5%` = 2441)
54	9:20 AM	1196	c(`2.5%` = 594)	c(`97.5%` = 1884)
55	9:20 AM	2108	c(`2.5%` = 1115)	c(`97.5%` = 3254)
56	9:20 AM	3093	c(`2.5%` = 1748)	c(`97.5%` = 4644)
57	9:20 AM	2620	c(`2.5%` = 1583)	c(`97.5%` = 3761)
58	9:20 AM	4319	c(`2.5%` = 2600)	c(`97.5%` = 6347)
59	9:20 AM	2188	c(`2.5%` = 1565)	c(`97.5%` = 2988)
60	9:20 AM	1768	c(`2.5%` = 1250)	c(`97.5%` = 2449)
61	9:20 AM	2463	c(`2.5%` = 1656)	c(`97.5%` = 3405)
62	9:20 AM	1835	c(`2.5%` = 928)	c(`97.5%` = 2776)
63	9:20 AM	2581	c(`2.5%` = 1677)	c(`97.5%` = 3625)
64	9:20 AM	1439	c(`2.5%` = 819)	c(`97.5%` = 2139)
65	9:20 AM	2098	c(`2.5%` = 1287)	c(`97.5%` = 3037)
66	9:20 AM	4315	c(`2.5%` = 2782)	c(`97.5%` = 6051)

Raw Submissions

**Submitted Data**

Time of Vote	Precinct	Voter Number

7:10 AM	5107	2
7:41 AM	0537	24
7:42 AM	0501	14
7:43 AM	0828	33
7:03 AM	2714	2
7:40 AM	1508	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:25 AM	0214	16
7:56 AM	3636	33
7:13 AM	0218	9
8:07 AM	4603	27
8:16 AM	0218	60
8:18 AM	0222	68
8:10 AM	1810	36
8:20 AM	3635	57
8:30 AM	3110	55
8:32 AM	0532	69
8:30 AM	2707	45
8:32 AM	2702	48
8:15 AM	3901	52
8:15 AM	3640	64
8:38 AM	3638	55
8:38 AM	3637	31
8:42 AM	0525	64
8:40 AM	0501	36
7:30 AM	0202	28
8:40 AM	0537	56
8:12 AM	4616	41
8:35 AM	3909	65
8:43 AM	0517	69
8:49 AM	0834	73
8:49 AM	0206	69
8:50 AM	0828	77
8:07 AM	0801	40
7:30 AM	3640	31
7:30 AM	3104	29
8:50 AM	0213	25
8:40 AM	2717	56
8:45 AM	2101	47
8:25 AM	3945	52
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
9:02 AM	1503	92
7:15 AM	0902	12
8:40 AM	2717	56
7:01 AM	0807	13
9:09 AM	4701	73
8:50 AM	0213	25
9:10 AM	1514	81
7:55 AM	1517	30
9:00 AM	3914	40
8:00 AM	5702	60
8:30 AM	2105	91
8:30 AM	2105	91
9:15 AM	2714	51
8:15 AM	2605	56
9:20 AM	3637	100
9:20 AM	3638	79
8:30 AM	0521	92
9:20 AM	0532	112

Download the csvs: - Raw Submissions - Division Predictions

Live 2020 Election Turnout Tracker